Coffee Market Update for UK Small Roasters
Here’s a straightforward look at what’s been happening in the coffee market over the past week with
Coffee Market Update – Week of 8th–12th September 2025
Coffee prices climb again, nearly hitting $4.00/lb
The market saw a strong push higher this week, with New York Arabica futures jumping over 10 cents/lb on both Monday and Friday. By the end of the week, prices were up nearly 6%, closing just under $4.00/lb — the highest in four and a half months.
Prices have now bounced back almost $1.20/lb from their lows in June. But the $4.00–$4.10/lb range continues to be a tough ceiling for the market.
For small roasters: prices remain high and unstable, and cooperatives and traders are under pressure, which can filter through to contracts and supply reliability.
Origin News
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Tariffs: No new updates, but the ongoing 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee heading into the US are still disrupting trade. Some exporters are trying to sell off contracts to avoid the impact.
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Weather & Crops:
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Indonesia: Severe floods and landslides in Bali and Flores are affecting logistics. Most Arabica harvesting in Bali, Java, and Sulawesi is done, but Sumatra’s main crop is about to start.
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India: The rainy season is lingering longer than usual, with heavy storms in Karnataka and Kerala. This could harm crop development. Arabica harvest is expected to begin in December, followed by Robusta in January.
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Market Position
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Speculators (non-commercial traders) were leaning heavily long (betting on higher prices).
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Commercials (importers/exporters) increased their selling.
This push and pull reflects the uncertainty in the market.
Currency & Economy
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US Dollar: Inflation data and growth worries kept traders guessing. By Friday, the Dollar weakened, boosting expectations of a September interest rate cut.
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British Pound: Benefited from Dollar weakness, helping keep costs in check for UK buyers, at least temporarily.
What This Means for Small Batch Roasters
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Prices are testing the $4.00 barrier again. Be cautious about assuming prices will drop back quickly.
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Weather disruptions in Indonesia and India could limit supply in the months ahead.
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Currency moves can be just as important as coffee prices. A weaker Dollar helps non-US roasters, but that could change quickly if markets shift.