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Here’s a straightforward look at what’s been happening in the coffee market over the past week.
Arabica Coffee
The week began with falling prices, as Arabica dropped after reaching recent highs in August. By Tuesday, it settled at 370.35 US c/lb, down almost 7 cents.
Mid-week, things shifted when Brazil’s crop agency (Conab) cut its forecast for the 2025 Arabica crop by almost 5%, now estimating 35.2 million bags. This was a surprise for the market and gave prices a lift. By Thursday, Arabica recovered to 374.40 US c/lb.
Overall, the market is still sensitive to any supply news from Brazil. Prices look like they’re consolidating for now after strong gains last month.
Robusta Coffee
Robusta didn’t share Arabica’s mid-week bounce. Prices steadily fell throughout the week, closing Friday at $4,309/mt, which is about $491/mt lower than where it began.
Key Origin News
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Brazil was the main driver of market news. With the harvest nearly complete, the revised crop forecast was unexpectedly lower, adding to worries about ongoing supply shortages.
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The US tariff situation also added uncertainty. A potential 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports is still under debate, and if enforced, it could push up US retail prices and disrupt trade. Brazilian officials are challenging the tariffs, while coffee groups are urging the US to exclude coffee.
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Other Central and South American countries may not be able to make up Brazil’s shortfall, as much of their crop has already been sold at lower prices.
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Weather in Brazil is being watched closely as the flowering season for next year’s crop begins. Any problems here could tighten supply even further.
Market Position & Stocks
Speculators remain heavily invested in coffee, keeping the market tilted toward higher prices. Certified stock levels are still historically low, which means supply disruptions could have an outsized impact.
Currency & Global Economy
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A weaker US Dollar gave some relief to international buyers. The Euro gained strength, making coffee purchases a little less expensive for European roasters.
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In the UK, the Pound had a shaky week due to political and financial pressures but ended back at its starting point thanks to weak US job data.
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Expectations are growing for a US interest rate cut in September, which could keep the Dollar under pressure and potentially support commodity prices like coffee.
In summary:
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Arabica steadied after Brazil cut its crop forecast, showing how tight supply remains.
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Robusta weakened across the week.
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Brazilian crop concerns and US tariff uncertainty are adding volatility.
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Low stock levels and currency shifts continue to play a big role in prices.