Coffee Market Update for UK Small Roasters
Here’s a straightforward look at what’s been happening in the coffee market over the past week with
Coffee Market Update for UK Small Roasters
Period: 1st – 12th September 2025
Arabica Coffee (your typical specialty beans)
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Prices in New York surged again, finishing just under $4.00/lb (around £3.15/lb).
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This is the highest level in 4.5 months and very close to the “psychological” $4.00 barrier that traders keep watching.
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Since June, prices have risen by over 40%.
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Main driver: Brazil (the world’s biggest coffee grower) revised its harvest down by almost 5%, which has made supply look tighter.
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What this means for you: Expect green Arabica prices to remain high and potentially climb further if Brazil has more issues with weather. Sourcing will stay competitive.
Robusta Coffee (often used in blends & espresso base)
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Prices dropped last week, closing at $4,309/mt (about £3,430/mt).
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This contrasts Arabica’s rise, giving some relief if you’re using Robusta in blends.
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What this means for you: Robusta could be a more stable, cost-effective option for blends in the short term.
Growing Regions (Origins)
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Brazil: Harvest nearly finished. Lower crop estimate was the big market shock. Attention now shifts to the flowering period — if weather is poor, next year’s supply could also be hit.
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Indonesia: Severe floods and landslides in Bali and Flores are disrupting logistics.
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India: Heavy late rains could affect upcoming crops. Arabica harvest starts December, Robusta in January.
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Tariffs: A 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports is still undecided. If enforced, it could push global prices higher because U.S. buyers will scramble for other origins.
Market Positioning (Who’s Buying & Selling)
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Speculators (fund managers, traders) are heavily betting on prices rising.
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Commercials (farmers, exporters, roasters) are mostly selling forward to protect themselves.
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What this means for you: The market is driven by outside money, not just supply and demand. Prices may swing quickly.
Currency Impact (Important for UK buyers)
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The U.S. Dollar weakened last week as markets expect a U.S. interest rate cut in September.
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The Pound recovered after an early dip caused by UK bond market worries.
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What this means for you: A stronger Pound against the Dollar is a small positive — it softens some of the pain of higher coffee prices when importing green beans.
Key Takeaways for UK Small Roasters
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Arabica prices are expensive and rising, so expect higher costs on your next contracts.
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Robusta is weaker, so blends may help manage costs.
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Keep an eye on Brazil’s weather and U.S. tariff decisions — both could push prices even higher.
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A firmer Pound helps a little, but not enough to offset the rise in coffee futures.
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If possible, consider locking in some contracts early to protect against further volatility.